Russia invades Georgia!

No, not that Georgia -- the one that wants to invade Tennessee, the one where they like peaches and bulldogs and Bob Barr. The other Georgia. And, all joking aside, this is actually quite serious:

Russia sent columns of tanks and reportedly bombed Georgian air bases Friday after Georgia launched a major military offensive Friday to retake the breakaway province of South Ossetia, threatening to ignite a broader conflict.

Hundreds of civilians were reported dead in the worst outbreak of hostilities since the province won defacto independence in a war against Georgia that ended in 1992. Witnesses said the South Ossetian capital of Tskhinvali was devastated.

"I saw bodies lying on the streets, around ruined buildings, in cars," said Lyudmila Ostayeva, 50, who had fled with her family to Dzhava, a village near the border with Russia. "It's impossible to count them now. There is hardly a single building left undamaged."

The fighting broke out as much of the world's attention was focused on the start of the Olympic Games and many leaders, including Russia's Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and President Bush, were in Beijing.

As Andrew wrote in comments, "Russia invaded Georgia on the day of the opening ceremonies. How Soviet-style is that?"

Anyway, here's an analysis of why -- in addition to the general carnage, death and destruction, of course -- this matters:

It would be a serious mistake for the international community to regard the dramatic escalation of violence in Georgia as just another flare-up in the Caucasus.

The names of the flashpoints may be unfamiliar, the territory remote and the dispute parochial, but the battle underway will have major repercussions well beyond this volatile region.

The outcome of this struggle will determine the course of Russia’s future relations with its neighbours, will shape President Medvedev’s presidency, could alter the relationship between the Kremlin and the West and decide the fate of future energy supplies from the Caspian basin. ...

America and Britain are particularly closely involved in providing military assistance to the Georgians in the form of arms and training. The support is aimed at encouraging the rise of Georgia as an independent, sovereign state. But the help is also partly a means of protecting the oil pipeline across Georgia that carries crude from the Caspian to the Black Sea, the only export route that bypasses Russia’s stranglehold on energy exports from the region.

For all these reasons, the stakes in this mini war could not be higher.

If Georgia succeeds in reimposing its sovereignty over South Ossetia in the face of Russian opposition, it will be a huge setback to Russia’s influence in the region. It could also embolden other former Soviet republics, like Ukraine, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, who are also seeking to break out of Moscow’s grip.

A defeat for the Georgians could well signal the end of [President Mikheil] Saakashvili and set back severely Georgia’s efforts to establish itself as a modern Western-looking democracy.

Either way, the conflict risks further undermining already strained relations between Russia and the West and encouraging those on both sides who would like to see a return to Cold War suspicion and rivalry.

Interestingly, the Georgian army has 2,000 soldiers currently serving alongside U.S. and other allied troops in Iraq, part of the security force in Baghdad. This is part and parcel of the close alliance between Georgia's government and the Bush Administration. But, er, I'm thinking those boys may need to go home.