BYU is a national championship contender
With #1 USC, #3 Georgia and #4 Florida all losing over the weekend -- not to mention #9 Wisconsin, #16 Wake Forest, #20 Clemson, #22 Illinois, #23 East Carolina and #24 TCU -- a shakeup in the college football polls was obviously inevitable, and it has indeed happened.
Oklahoma is the new #1, as expected. Strangely, the Sooners are a near-unanimous #1 in the coaches' poll (57 out of 61 votes), but didn't even get two-thirds of the AP first-place votes (43 out of 65). The difference is the pollsters' opinion of Alabama, which is ranked #4 with just two first-place votes in the coaches' poll, but is ranked #2 with 21 first-place votes in the AP poll! I dunno why the journalists are so much more enthusiastic about the Tide than the coaches are, but there it is. Anyway, the Top 5 goes Oklahoma-Alabama-LSU-Missouri-Texas in the AP poll, and Oklahoma-LSU-Missouri-Alabama-Texas in the coaches' poll.
Penn State is #6 in both polls, making the Nittany Lions the nation's highest-ranked non-SEC, non-Big 12 team. Who's second in that category? BYU! TheMormons Cougars of the mighty, mighty Mountain West are #8 in the AP poll, #7 in the coaches' poll. Rival Utah is #15 in both polls, and Boise State and Fresno State of the WAC are #17/18 and #22/21, respectively. All hail the mid-majors!
BYU, it should be noted, is officially more than just a contender for a BCS at-large berth. The Cougars need to be taken seriously as a national championship contender. Of the six teams ranked ahead of them in the coaches' poll (which is, of course, one-third of the BCS formula), a maximum of three -- one SEC team, one Big 12 team, and Penn State -- can potentially stay undefeated. So, for all practical purposes, the Cougars are #4 right now in the pecking order. That means, if the Lions lose at some point, and if either the SEC or the Big 12 (or both) cannibalize themselves sufficiently to produce a one-loss champion (which seems quite likely), BYU must be seen as having the inside track to a #1 or #2 poll ranking at season's end. And given the Mountain West's overall strength, I'd imagine the computers probably wouldn't overturn the polls in this instance. All things considered, I would argue that BYU may have the clearest path to the BCS title game of any team in the country right now. It's gotta be either them or Penn State, right? (Nobody in the SEC or Big 12 has a remotely "clear path.")
[AFTERTHOUGHT: On the other hand: what if Florida or Georgia or Auburn wins out? Does a one-loss SEC champ get in over BYU? Er, yeah, maybe they do. Particularly if the loss was in September. Okay, so I take back the "clearest path" thing. But, at any rate, BYU is very much in the mix. And, let me say this now, notwithstanding my bias: if a one-loss USC gets in over an undefeated Mountain West champ, after the way the Pac-10 has performed against the MWC -- 0-5, and counting! -- that would almost certainly be a travesty. I say "almost certainly" because I'd have to see how the season plays out before making a final judgment. But I certainly think BYU and Utah should be considered clearly ahead of USC in the pecking order at this point. The Mountain West is every bit as much a "major conference" as the Pac-10, Big Ten, Big East and ACC this year, and should be treated as such.]
Anyway... USC falls to #9 in both polls, and is the highest-ranked one-loss team. That probably makes sense right now, as 'SC has a better quality win (over Ohio State) than one-loss SEC squads Georgia, Florida or Auburn. But I strongly suspect the Trojans, if they win out, would not ultimately finish ahead of either the Bulldogs, Gators or Tigers, if one of those teams were to win out, nor of any other one-loss SEC or Big 12 champion, for that matter.
Oh... and did I mention UConn is ranked? Yep, the undefeated Huskies are #24 in the AP poll, #23 in the coaches' poll. They're at North Carolina on Saturday.
P.S. The first Harris Poll -- the other poll in the BCS formula, along with the coaches' poll -- is also out. It goes #1 Oklahoma, #2 LSU, #3 Alabama, #4 Missouri, #5 Texas, #6 Penn State, #7 USC, #8 Texas Tech, #9 BYU, #10 Georgia.
P.P.S. I've added BYU @ Utah, on November 22, to my "upcoming events" sidebar. If both teams win out, that is going to be an epic game.
UPDATE: Rich Tellshow has posted estimated, unofficial BCS standings, based on the polls and the available computer rankings. He's got Oklahoma #1 and Alabama #2 -- the computers agree with the journalists, evidently -- with Texas, Missouri, and LSU rounding out the Top 5. BYU is #8; USC is #9. Utah is #12. Boise State is #15.
Oklahoma is the new #1, as expected. Strangely, the Sooners are a near-unanimous #1 in the coaches' poll (57 out of 61 votes), but didn't even get two-thirds of the AP first-place votes (43 out of 65). The difference is the pollsters' opinion of Alabama, which is ranked #4 with just two first-place votes in the coaches' poll, but is ranked #2 with 21 first-place votes in the AP poll! I dunno why the journalists are so much more enthusiastic about the Tide than the coaches are, but there it is. Anyway, the Top 5 goes Oklahoma-Alabama-LSU-Missouri-Texas in the AP poll, and Oklahoma-LSU-Missouri-Alabama-Texas in the coaches' poll.
Penn State is #6 in both polls, making the Nittany Lions the nation's highest-ranked non-SEC, non-Big 12 team. Who's second in that category? BYU! The
BYU, it should be noted, is officially more than just a contender for a BCS at-large berth. The Cougars need to be taken seriously as a national championship contender. Of the six teams ranked ahead of them in the coaches' poll (which is, of course, one-third of the BCS formula), a maximum of three -- one SEC team, one Big 12 team, and Penn State -- can potentially stay undefeated. So, for all practical purposes, the Cougars are #4 right now in the pecking order. That means, if the Lions lose at some point, and if either the SEC or the Big 12 (or both) cannibalize themselves sufficiently to produce a one-loss champion (which seems quite likely), BYU must be seen as having the inside track to a #1 or #2 poll ranking at season's end. And given the Mountain West's overall strength, I'd imagine the computers probably wouldn't overturn the polls in this instance. All things considered, I would argue that BYU may have the clearest path to the BCS title game of any team in the country right now. It's gotta be either them or Penn State, right? (Nobody in the SEC or Big 12 has a remotely "clear path.")
[AFTERTHOUGHT: On the other hand: what if Florida or Georgia or Auburn wins out? Does a one-loss SEC champ get in over BYU? Er, yeah, maybe they do. Particularly if the loss was in September. Okay, so I take back the "clearest path" thing. But, at any rate, BYU is very much in the mix. And, let me say this now, notwithstanding my bias: if a one-loss USC gets in over an undefeated Mountain West champ, after the way the Pac-10 has performed against the MWC -- 0-5, and counting! -- that would almost certainly be a travesty. I say "almost certainly" because I'd have to see how the season plays out before making a final judgment. But I certainly think BYU and Utah should be considered clearly ahead of USC in the pecking order at this point. The Mountain West is every bit as much a "major conference" as the Pac-10, Big Ten, Big East and ACC this year, and should be treated as such.]
Anyway... USC falls to #9 in both polls, and is the highest-ranked one-loss team. That probably makes sense right now, as 'SC has a better quality win (over Ohio State) than one-loss SEC squads Georgia, Florida or Auburn. But I strongly suspect the Trojans, if they win out, would not ultimately finish ahead of either the Bulldogs, Gators or Tigers, if one of those teams were to win out, nor of any other one-loss SEC or Big 12 champion, for that matter.
Oh... and did I mention UConn is ranked? Yep, the undefeated Huskies are #24 in the AP poll, #23 in the coaches' poll. They're at North Carolina on Saturday.
P.S. The first Harris Poll -- the other poll in the BCS formula, along with the coaches' poll -- is also out. It goes #1 Oklahoma, #2 LSU, #3 Alabama, #4 Missouri, #5 Texas, #6 Penn State, #7 USC, #8 Texas Tech, #9 BYU, #10 Georgia.
P.P.S. I've added BYU @ Utah, on November 22, to my "upcoming events" sidebar. If both teams win out, that is going to be an epic game.
UPDATE: Rich Tellshow has posted estimated, unofficial BCS standings, based on the polls and the available computer rankings. He's got Oklahoma #1 and Alabama #2 -- the computers agree with the journalists, evidently -- with Texas, Missouri, and LSU rounding out the Top 5. BYU is #8; USC is #9. Utah is #12. Boise State is #15.
posted by Brendan Loy at
9/28/2008 11:31:00 PM
