A predictive hunch

As things are evolving, I am increasingly beginning to suspect that, by the time Election Day dawns, we'll find ourselves in a 1996-like situation, pretty much knowing in advance that the Republican candidate is doomed, and the Democrat is going to cruise to victory. (I remember watching a morning show on Election Day '96, with some pundit -- probably Tim Russert -- being asked, "Does Dole have any chance?," and sort of grimacing and responding with a sigh: "It's tough." In other words, no.)

Heck, maybe Obama will even clinch an electoral majority when the Mountain Time Zone states' polls close. That would certainly be a change from 2000 and 2004. Five Thirty Eight says there's a 25% chance of an Obama "landslide" (375 electoral votes or more). I'm not predicting that. But I am feeling more and more comfortable about the outcome. McCain's campaign seems to be imploding; Obama's campaign seems very much on an even keel, having recovered from a rough patch, and the dynamics -- political, economic, media -- are overwhelmingly in his favor. Barring a self-inflicted Obama implosion, how does McCain turn this thing around?

Of course, I probably just jinxed it, and McCain will win a squeaker. :) But I'm just saying this is what my instinct tells me right now, after being either cautious or pessimistic for quite a while.