WTF was that??
Oregon State 27, USC 21, final.
ARGH.
Recall: two years ago, when the Trojans lost in Corvallis, we thought it signaled the death knell of any national championship hopes. That turned out to be wrong; the one-loss Trojans would have faced undefeated Ohio State for the BCS title if only they'd just beaten fUCLA in the last game of the season. So beware of the assumption that this loss definitively ends the Trojans' hopes. It's very early in the season. Nothing is ended yet. And, all other things being equal, it's better to lose in September than November.
Problem is, all other things are not equal. First of all, obviously, major-conference unbeatens -- all 20 of 'em -- get first dibs. And, IMHO, an undefeated Mountain West champ would have a pretty damn good case over a one-loss Pac-10 champ, too, given how those conferences have performed against one another this year, and given how genuinely solid the MWC appears to be. Moreover, the Pac-10's down year will give a major leg up to any one-loss Big 12 or SEC champion in most scenarios. It's hard to see the Trojans getting in ahead of such a team. USC may need a totally chaotic scenario like last year's, with two-loss contenders and such, to have a realistic shot.
Of course, that's all assuming the Trojans win out, and maybe that's not such a fair assumption anymore. Do we really know how good USC is? They've trounced one team that's apparently godawful (Virginia) and another team that was apparently vastly overrated (Ohio State). And now they've lost to Oregon State. Maybe 'SC just isn't as good this year as we thought they were? Or am I overreacting?
Either way, I'm going to bed, and perhaps I can dream that USC is undefeated again. *sigh*
ARGH.
Recall: two years ago, when the Trojans lost in Corvallis, we thought it signaled the death knell of any national championship hopes. That turned out to be wrong; the one-loss Trojans would have faced undefeated Ohio State for the BCS title if only they'd just beaten fUCLA in the last game of the season. So beware of the assumption that this loss definitively ends the Trojans' hopes. It's very early in the season. Nothing is ended yet. And, all other things being equal, it's better to lose in September than November.
Problem is, all other things are not equal. First of all, obviously, major-conference unbeatens -- all 20 of 'em -- get first dibs. And, IMHO, an undefeated Mountain West champ would have a pretty damn good case over a one-loss Pac-10 champ, too, given how those conferences have performed against one another this year, and given how genuinely solid the MWC appears to be. Moreover, the Pac-10's down year will give a major leg up to any one-loss Big 12 or SEC champion in most scenarios. It's hard to see the Trojans getting in ahead of such a team. USC may need a totally chaotic scenario like last year's, with two-loss contenders and such, to have a realistic shot.
Of course, that's all assuming the Trojans win out, and maybe that's not such a fair assumption anymore. Do we really know how good USC is? They've trounced one team that's apparently godawful (Virginia) and another team that was apparently vastly overrated (Ohio State). And now they've lost to Oregon State. Maybe 'SC just isn't as good this year as we thought they were? Or am I overreacting?
Either way, I'm going to bed, and perhaps I can dream that USC is undefeated again. *sigh*
posted by Brendan Loy at
9/26/2008 12:23:00 AM
