BCS standings & ALCS open thread
First of all... my baseball blogging has been woefully subpar, indeed almost nonexistent, this postseason. Honestly, I've just been too consumed with politics and other things (my job, my baby, our impending move, college football, etc.) to pay all that much attention. But with the Red Sox playing in the Game 7 of the ALCS tonight, I figure an open thread is the least I can do. So, if anybody is hanging out here while watching the game, comment away. Oh, and GO SAWX!!
[UPDATE: Rays win. Darn it. ... David Price, a 2007 draft pick from Vanderbilt who is practically fresh out of the minors, got Tampa Bay out of a two-out, bases-loaded jam in the eighth, then earned the save in the ninth. Remarkable! ... So it's Rays vs. Phillies in the World Series. Who'd have thunk it?]
Meanwhile, in college football, the first BCS standings are out. No surprise on the top 3: Texas, Alabama and Penn State. The other major-conference unbeatens, Oklahoma State and Texas Tech, are #6 and #8, but would undoubtedly jump over everyone except Alabama (sorry, JoePa) if they win out. Among the one-loss teams, Oklahoma is #4, USC is #5, Georgia is #7, Ohio State is #9 and Florida is #10. With the strongest part of their schedule behind them, the Trojans could very well get leapfrogged even if they win out, as their already-low computer rating declines further, and other one-loss teams have more high-profile opportunities for quality wins. They're safe vis a vis Ohio State, for obvious reasons, but I would put Georgia, Florida and possibly #13 LSU ahead of them in the pecking order, as well as a one-loss Alabama or one-loss Texas, if those teams lose soon but rally to win their conferences. (Not sure about one-loss Okie State or Texas Tech.)
The race for an automatic at-large bid among the non-BCS conference teams is also pretty interesting. There are six contenders: unbeatens Utah (#11), Boise State (#12), Tulsa (#19) and Ball State (#21), and one-loss teams TCU (#15) and BYU (#21). Although currently ahead of Boise State by just a whisker, Utah is by far the leading contender; the Utes are ranked #8 by the computers, and will inevitably climb in the human polls if they win out, especially with big games remaining against both TCU and BYU. (With Fresno State being such a disappointment, Boise State has no equivalently big games left.) Indeed, I still think Utah could even climb into the national title game if everything breaks right, particularly if it's a battle for the #2 spot against USC. (Utah beat Oregon State the week after the Beavers beat the Trojans, and the Mountain West went 6-1 against the Pac-10. How could the unbeaten Utes be denied against the one-loss Trojans?)
If Utah doesn't go undefeated, Boise State is next in line for a BCS at-large bid. After that, it could be a dogfight between a one-loss Mountain West champ (TCU, BYU or Utah) and an undefeated Conference USA champ (Tulsa) or MAC champ (Ball State) for the lone big-money bowl spot. Don't laugh: if undefeated Hawaii, with its incredibly weak schedule, could get a bid last year, so can undefeated Ball State or Tulsa. They may be down around 20th now, but they'll rise by attrition if they keep winning. (Hawaii was #18 in the first BCS standings last year.) All in all, it seems very likely that, for the third straight year, somebody from a non-BCS conference will get a BCS at-large bid -- especially given the possibility that either the Big East or the ACC (or both) will produce a lowly ranking champion, thus lowering the bar for at-large inclusion (Top 16 instead of Top 12).
[UPDATE: Rays win. Darn it. ... David Price, a 2007 draft pick from Vanderbilt who is practically fresh out of the minors, got Tampa Bay out of a two-out, bases-loaded jam in the eighth, then earned the save in the ninth. Remarkable! ... So it's Rays vs. Phillies in the World Series. Who'd have thunk it?]
Meanwhile, in college football, the first BCS standings are out. No surprise on the top 3: Texas, Alabama and Penn State. The other major-conference unbeatens, Oklahoma State and Texas Tech, are #6 and #8, but would undoubtedly jump over everyone except Alabama (sorry, JoePa) if they win out. Among the one-loss teams, Oklahoma is #4, USC is #5, Georgia is #7, Ohio State is #9 and Florida is #10. With the strongest part of their schedule behind them, the Trojans could very well get leapfrogged even if they win out, as their already-low computer rating declines further, and other one-loss teams have more high-profile opportunities for quality wins. They're safe vis a vis Ohio State, for obvious reasons, but I would put Georgia, Florida and possibly #13 LSU ahead of them in the pecking order, as well as a one-loss Alabama or one-loss Texas, if those teams lose soon but rally to win their conferences. (Not sure about one-loss Okie State or Texas Tech.)
The race for an automatic at-large bid among the non-BCS conference teams is also pretty interesting. There are six contenders: unbeatens Utah (#11), Boise State (#12), Tulsa (#19) and Ball State (#21), and one-loss teams TCU (#15) and BYU (#21). Although currently ahead of Boise State by just a whisker, Utah is by far the leading contender; the Utes are ranked #8 by the computers, and will inevitably climb in the human polls if they win out, especially with big games remaining against both TCU and BYU. (With Fresno State being such a disappointment, Boise State has no equivalently big games left.) Indeed, I still think Utah could even climb into the national title game if everything breaks right, particularly if it's a battle for the #2 spot against USC. (Utah beat Oregon State the week after the Beavers beat the Trojans, and the Mountain West went 6-1 against the Pac-10. How could the unbeaten Utes be denied against the one-loss Trojans?)
If Utah doesn't go undefeated, Boise State is next in line for a BCS at-large bid. After that, it could be a dogfight between a one-loss Mountain West champ (TCU, BYU or Utah) and an undefeated Conference USA champ (Tulsa) or MAC champ (Ball State) for the lone big-money bowl spot. Don't laugh: if undefeated Hawaii, with its incredibly weak schedule, could get a bid last year, so can undefeated Ball State or Tulsa. They may be down around 20th now, but they'll rise by attrition if they keep winning. (Hawaii was #18 in the first BCS standings last year.) All in all, it seems very likely that, for the third straight year, somebody from a non-BCS conference will get a BCS at-large bid -- especially given the possibility that either the Big East or the ACC (or both) will produce a lowly ranking champion, thus lowering the bar for at-large inclusion (Top 16 instead of Top 12).
posted by Brendan Loy at
10/19/2008 07:56:00 PM
