Pondering Election Night

Notwithstanding Drudge's desperate attempts to cherry-pick poll results demonstrating a McCain comeback, at present my predictive hunch of two-and-a-half weeks ago is looking pretty damn good. Barring a major shift in the electorate's mood, a very significant October surprise, the gaffe to end all gaffes by Obama, or a shockingly powerful rebirth of the Bradley Effect, it seems like there will really be only three major items of suspense on Election Night: how big will Obama's margin be; will he "clinch" before the polls close in California; and will the Democrats get a filibuster-proof Senate majority?

The first two items will make 2008 reminiscent of the relatively boring Election Nights of 1988, 1992 and 1996 (I'm too young to remember any before that, though 1984 can't have been scintillating either), rather than the thrilling, late-night roller-coaster rides of 2000 and 2004. The third item will make it feel a bit like a midterm election.

Oh, well. Either way, I'll still have fun with the Mother Of All Liveblogs. :)

P.S. Er, knock on wood.