Election Day notes
Alas, my stomach flu chose the worst day possible -- today -- to strike Becky. She woke up this morning feeling like hell, and now she's miserable in bed (or rather, on our air mattress), while I'm on full-time baby duty, even as I run around like a chicken with my head cut off, trying to take election pictures, run errands, get ready for my election party, prepare for the Mother of All Liveblogs, and so forth. As a result, I won't be able to do much election blogging, or even follow the news much at all, prior to 5:00 PM EST, when the liveblog starts.
But, quickly, as I sit in the car with my laptop hooked to my cell phone while Loyette takes a nap in her car seat, here are a trio of curmudgeonly Election Day reminders:
1. The leaked exit-poll numbers, which will come out in a few hours, mean NOTHING! Here is the McCain campaign's explanation why. Here is Five Thirty Eight's explanation why. We really ought to ignore the damn exit polls altogether, at least until their calibrated with some actual results. We won't, of course. But "take them with a grain of salt" doesn't even begin to express the degree of skepticism that's needed here. Basically, treat them like bowl projections based on a preseason college-football poll. Interesting, shiny, fun to toy with, and totally irrelevant to the actual results.
2. Anecdotal reports of problems at the polls, irregularities, etc., even if seemingly numerous, do NOT necessarily mean this election is a "fiasco." There are always problems and irregularities on Election Day -- always have been -- and if you look for them, you'll find tons and tons of them. And ever since 2000, the media (and the campaigns) have been looking for them. As a result, every single Election Day now, this stuff gets played up during the news lull when everybody's waiting for results. Now, don't get me wrong: there are a lot of problems out there, too many problems, and maybe there are so many that it really can be fairly called a "fiasco." But you just can't make such a broad determination, about the national election as a whole, simply based on the fact that Drudge has a bunch of ominous headlines, the cable newsies are squawking, and reports of irregularities are "widespread." Those things always happen. (I actually haven't followed the news closely enough this morning to know whether they're happening in this case, but I assume they are, or will soon, because that's just how the Election Day script reads.)
3. Likewise, anecdotal reports of unbelievable, stunning, incredible, record turnouts, do NOT necessarily mean very much. Again, don't me wrong: the turnout almost certainly will be record-shattering. But at the same time, early anecdotal reports almost always say that turnout is incredibly high in presidential elections, probably because poll workers -- many of whom also work the various lower-turnout elections in between times -- quadrennially forget how much bigger turnout always is in a presidential year, and because some voters are easily excitable, and because it's easy to find some places with really long line, etc. And again, this stuff gets played up by the bored media during the pre-results news lull, because they have nothing else to talk about. Bottom line, if you want to know how big the turnout is, you really need to wait until the raw data is in. Election Day anecdotes won't do it.
But, quickly, as I sit in the car with my laptop hooked to my cell phone while Loyette takes a nap in her car seat, here are a trio of curmudgeonly Election Day reminders:
1. The leaked exit-poll numbers, which will come out in a few hours, mean NOTHING! Here is the McCain campaign's explanation why. Here is Five Thirty Eight's explanation why. We really ought to ignore the damn exit polls altogether, at least until their calibrated with some actual results. We won't, of course. But "take them with a grain of salt" doesn't even begin to express the degree of skepticism that's needed here. Basically, treat them like bowl projections based on a preseason college-football poll. Interesting, shiny, fun to toy with, and totally irrelevant to the actual results.
2. Anecdotal reports of problems at the polls, irregularities, etc., even if seemingly numerous, do NOT necessarily mean this election is a "fiasco." There are always problems and irregularities on Election Day -- always have been -- and if you look for them, you'll find tons and tons of them. And ever since 2000, the media (and the campaigns) have been looking for them. As a result, every single Election Day now, this stuff gets played up during the news lull when everybody's waiting for results. Now, don't get me wrong: there are a lot of problems out there, too many problems, and maybe there are so many that it really can be fairly called a "fiasco." But you just can't make such a broad determination, about the national election as a whole, simply based on the fact that Drudge has a bunch of ominous headlines, the cable newsies are squawking, and reports of irregularities are "widespread." Those things always happen. (I actually haven't followed the news closely enough this morning to know whether they're happening in this case, but I assume they are, or will soon, because that's just how the Election Day script reads.)
3. Likewise, anecdotal reports of unbelievable, stunning, incredible, record turnouts, do NOT necessarily mean very much. Again, don't me wrong: the turnout almost certainly will be record-shattering. But at the same time, early anecdotal reports almost always say that turnout is incredibly high in presidential elections, probably because poll workers -- many of whom also work the various lower-turnout elections in between times -- quadrennially forget how much bigger turnout always is in a presidential year, and because some voters are easily excitable, and because it's easy to find some places with really long line, etc. And again, this stuff gets played up by the bored media during the pre-results news lull, because they have nothing else to talk about. Bottom line, if you want to know how big the turnout is, you really need to wait until the raw data is in. Election Day anecdotes won't do it.
posted by Brendan Loy at
11/04/2008 12:18:00 PM
