Friday, November 7, 2008

Kevin Curran wins Electoral College Contest

Kevin Curran, better known on the blog as "kcatnd," clinched victory in the Electoral College Contest when Barack Obama was declared the winner in Nebraska's 2nd congressional district today.

Curran, a 2007 Notre Dame alum, has 527 points out of a possible 538, putting him one point ahead of the eleven contestants tied for second place with 526. Curran -- a native of Nebraska -- earned that decisive point by correctly predicting that Obama would prevail in the district surrounding Omaha.

Although Maine and Nebraska have long allocated their electoral votes partly by congressional district, this is the first time either state has ever actually "split" its votes. It's also the first time since the LBJ landslide of 1964 that any Nebraska electoral votes have gone to a Democrat. Curran was one of 22 contestants in the 86-person Electoral College Contest to predict Obama's win in the 2nd CD.

Curran has a perfect map with the exception of Missouri, which John McCain appears poised to win, though the state has not yet been "called" by various media organizations. If Obama pulls an unlikely comeback and wins Missouri, Curran will finish a perfect 538-for-538, as Mike Wiser did four years ago. But Curran will win the contest regardless of the outcome in the Show-Me State.

Assuming McCain holds on in Missouri, there will be eleven contestants tied for second place in the Electoral College Contest. In apparent tiebreaker order, pending final popular-vote results, they are: Jason Gilman, Andrew Hunter, Jenn Pease, Sean Wilkinson, Samuel Minter, Patrick Cullen, Alec Taylor, Ken Stern, dcl, Joe Loy and Roger Snyder. They each got one state wrong (Missouri, in Gilman's case; Indiana, in everyone else's), plus the Nebraska CD.

Everyone else in the contest got at least two states wrong.

Complete, detailed standings can be found here. A more succinct overview of the standings is here.