After a weekend in which the Big East joined the ACC on the list of conferences almost certainly irrelevant to the national title hunt (courtesy of losses by remaining unbeatens
South Florida and
UConn), the list of undefeated teams in college football dwindled to 15: five from the Big 12 (Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech), three from the SEC (Alabama, LSU, Vanderbilt), two from the Big Ten (Penn State, Northwestern) and five mid-majors (BYU, Utah, Boise State, Ball State and Tulsa).
Of those 15 teams, all but Ball State and Tulsa have at least an outside shot at playing for a national title -- though Boise State's slim hopes are slipping; the Broncos need Oregon and Fresno State, its two best quality opponents, not to go into free fall. Both lost last weekend, and now have two losses apiece.
The list of unbeatens is guaranteed to shrink by at least two next week, as Texas plays Oklahoma and Oklahoma State plays Missouri. But that's only the beginning. The maximum number of teams that can potentially
finish undefeated is already down to eight. Only one Big 12 team and only one SEC team can do so, and either BYU or Utah is guaranteed to eventually lose. That shaves at least seven teams off the current list. (Penn State and Northwestern could potentially both finish unbeaten, as they don't play each other, and the Big Ten doesn't have a championship game.)
Here is my updated, totally unscientific estimate of the BCS "pecking order," which goes beyond merely looking at the
current polls and instead tries to project how the landscape would look if various currently unlikely scenarios (e.g., Northwestern going undefeated, Notre Dame finishing with one loss, etc.) were to happen:
1. Undefeated SEC champ
2. Undefeated Big 12 champ
3. Undefeated Penn State
4. One-loss SEC champ
5. One-loss Big 12 champ
6. Undefeated BYU or Utah
7. One-loss USC
8. One-loss Notre Dame
9. Undefeated Northwestern
10. One-loss Big Ten champ, if Penn State, Michigan State or Ohio State
11(t). Two-loss SEC or Big 12 champ; one-loss Pac 10 champ, if Cal or Arizona; one-loss SEC or Big 12
non-champion; one-loss Big East or ACC champ; one-loss Big Ten champ, if Northwestern or Minnesota; undefeated Boise State.
The teams "tied" for #11 aren't actually tied, of course, but I really can't differentiate between them at this point, and I've listed them in no particular order. Furthermore, I'm not actually sure that #10 is ahead of those #11s in all scenarios. For instance, if it's one-loss Ohio State against a two-loss SEC champ, are voters
really going to give the Buckeyes the edge, after the last two years? Hmm.
Furthermore, I think #6 through #9 on my list are all bunched very, very close together, and could really go in just about any order. (Of course, #7 and #8 cannot
both happen, so that distinction doesn't really matter.) In particular, I really have no idea how the pollsters would treat an undefeated Northwestern, which would have, arguably, exactly one "quality win" -- over a damaged-goods Ohio State team with at least two losses -- and a very, very weak schedule overall. The Wildcats would be a bit like Kansas last year, but without the potential to earn two big wins at the very end of the season and thus prove their mettle. In addition, they would carry the baggage of Ohio State's failures the last two years. Are voters really going to put
Northwestern in the title game after two straight SEC-over-Big-Ten drubbings? This is the main reason I think undefeated BYU or Utah would probably have an edge over undefeated Northwestern.
But of course, Northwestern probably isn't going to go undefeated at all. The most
likely debate, in my #6-9 range, is between an undefeated BYU/Utah and a one-loss USC. And the Cougars/Utes and Trojans are really #4 and #5 in the pecking order, when you consider that the SEC and Big 12 can each only produce one champion apiece. So this is a real possibility; #4 and #5 isn't all that far removed from #2 and #3. If Penn State loses, and if either the SEC or Big 12 produces a two-loss champion, I think we
will see a serious controversy between USC and the Mountain West champ, if both win out.
I'm not sure who will win that debate, but I don't agree with those who think it's an obvious, foregone conclusion that USC would definitely win it. The voters can't ignore the Mountain West's 5-1 record against the Pac-10, including Utah's
31-28 victory this past Thursday over Oregon State -- the very team that beat USC -- and BYU's ridiculous
59-0 rout of UCLA last month. And even if the voters
do ignore these things, the computers certainly won't. Nor will they ignore the simple fact of BYU/Utah being
undefeated, versus USC having one loss. The computers give the difference in the number of losses a lot of weight, even if the pollsters are inclined to look past it because USC has the "big name."
The Cougars' destruction of the Bruins actually creates a very interesting potential scenario. If BYU wins out, including the "Holy War" against Utah on November 22, they'll be "in the clubhouse" with a 12-0 record, while USC will still have two games left: at home vs. Notre Dame on November 29, and at -- guess who? -- UCLA on December 6. If the Trojans and Cougars emerge as BCS title game contenders, all eyes will be on the USC-UCLA game on the season's final day, to see not just whether USC can beat the Bruins, but
how badly they can beat them. "Style points" will be the order of the day. If the Trojans just squeak by, or even win by a reasonably comfortable but not overwhelming margin, the combination of BYU's undefeated record, its conference's overall success against the Pac-10, and the Cougars' 59-0 win over those same Bruins, will make a pretty damn compelling argument.
My guess? In most scenarios, the polls would give USC a very slight edge; the computers would significantly favor BYU; the Cougars would get in. But that's purely a guess.
P.S. Right now, the
computers prefer USC to BYU. But if you look at the respective schedules of the Trojans and Cougars, you'll see that -- going by computer rankings -- BYU has played the worst part of its schedule, and has a bunch of better opponents ahead, whereas USC has played the best part of its schedule, and has several weaker opponents ahead. Thus, we can expect BYU to gain ground on USC in the computers if both teams win out. To help their computer ratings (and, to a lesser extent, their poll numbers), the Trojans need to root for Ohio State and Notre Dame to do well; the Cougars need to root for UCLA and Washington to make some noise in the Pac-10. Considering the odds of each of those things happening... I may be getting ahead of myself when I say "the computers would significantly favor BYU." :) A tossup or slight USC edge seems the more likely scenario.
Meanwhile, the computers like Utah significantly better than USC. Hmm. Maybe I ought to separate out BYU and Utah in the "pecking order":
6. Undefeated Utah
7. One-loss USC
8. Undefeated BYU
I'm not sure how Utah could be denied vs. USC, given that the Utes
beat Oregon State one week after USC lost to them. It also doesn't hurt that Utah went into the Big House and beat Michigan (though the Utes need to hope Michigan, now 2-3, doesn't totally crash and burn). Those wins are both looking better than BYU's wins over UCLA and Washington, so I'm inclined to think Utah would have the stronger case -- against anyone, but
especially against the Trojans.
